Market Update for June 2, 2026

Alphabet/Google had its initial IPO in August 2024.  The company was worth about $26.4 billion on that first day of trading.  Meta/Facebook went public about 8 years later, May 2012, and was worth about $104 billion initially.  Google did well fairly immediately, whereas Facebook was actually negative for the first year or two before obviously doing very well thereafter.

I mention these tech giants because I am getting some questions about SpaceX, and its forthcoming IPO.  No doubt OpenAI and Anthropic are two other giant private companies soon to hit the public markets - but SpaceX is more imminently going public, so I will focus there for now.

SpaceX was founded in March 2002(!), over 24 years ago.  Its revenue last year was $18.7 billion, and its valuation in the private market is around $1.25 trillion (this is an estimate and after the IPO we will have a better sense of what it's REALLY worth).

That valuation is larger than the following companies: Walmart; JP Morgan; ExxonMobil; Oracle; Johnson & Johnson; Coca Cola; McDonald's, and thousands more.  Put differently, there are only 9 PUBLIC COMPANIES IN THE S&P 500 WITH A LOFTIER MARKET CAPITALIZATION THAN SPACEX.

This is not a "normal IPO" by any means.  Yes, one could make money buying the shares.  Yes, it could end up being a good investment even if bought after the IPO.  But a company valued at 67 times last year's REVENUE (not earnings), that has been privately incubated for 24 years, mostly controlled pre- and post-IPO by Elon Musk- that is not a safe investment, and I would caution any of my clients to not get too jazzed up by the hype.  The "smart money" probably got involved in this name a decade or more ago, and has been illiquid and patient for a very long time, awaiting this IPO.  

In short, I will watch with interest, but I would broadly caution against a large early investment post-IPO.